Venezuelans will vote July 28 in the country’s most highly anticipated presidential election in more than a decade since Nicolás Maduro assumed Venezuela’s top leadership role following the death of Hugo Chávez.
Venezuela’s democratic political opposition has coalesced around the candidacy of Edmundo González, a former diplomat who is running with full support from the unity platform’s primary winner, María Corina Machado. The country’s electoral authorities previously declared her and a second surrogate candidate ineligible to run.
Why this matters
Public opinion polls indicate that González maintains a significant lead over Maduro, whose approval ratings are at an all-time low as the country endures a deep economic crisis, persistent inflation, stagnant oil production, public insecurity, and the loss of more than a quarter of the country’s population through emigration.
The Democratic Unity Platform (MUD), which González represents, has overcome significant obstacles and barriers to contest the July 28 elections despite the Maduro regime’s best efforts to tilt the playing field in its own favor. Their message is one of hope of reunifying families who have fled from the Maduro regime’s persecution and the overall deterioration of the country. Opposition campaign events and rallies have drawn crowds of tens of thousands, despite a government ban on the opposition’s ability to advertise and frequent interference with their ability to travel within the country.
What we’re watching
The Maduro regime has regularly intimidated and silenced political opponents, including with a brutal crackdown on student-led protests in 2017. More than 300 political prisoners have been documented in 2024 alone, according to Venezuelan NGO Foro Penal, a human rights organization that provides pro bono legal services to many of those arrested. The United Nations and human rights organizations have accused the Maduro regime of crimes against humanity for forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and the systematic use of violence and torture against arbitrarily detained persons.
There is a significant risk that the Maduro regime will again target the political opposition and the general population if the election outcome is unfavorable to the current government. Direct threats against the opposition have increased over the past month, including the detention and release of Machado’s head of security, a break-in at a private residence where Machado was staying during a campaign visit, and the disabling of vehicles used to transport opposition leadership.
In the absence of all but a few international election monitors, the Maduro regime could also claim fraud, manipulate access to polling sites, or shut down access to the internet and other avenues of communication that could be used to independently assess voting on July 28.
Bottom line
The Maduro regime should know that the international community is watching these elections closely and that the use of violence and coercion against Venezuelan citizens for peacefully exercising their political rights to vote and to free association is unacceptable.
