One month after Venezuela’s presidential election, Nicolás Maduro is struggling to rewrite the history of what took place on July 28 to fabricate an outcome where he and his loyalists remain in power. On Aug. 22, the country’s Supreme Tribunal Justice – a body that is packed with representatives from Maduro’s own political party – ruled Maduro the winner of the election even though the court lacks the constitutional authority to do so.
The Venezuelan people who turned out to vote deserve to be recognized as the heroes of the story still playing out, as the country and the international community wait for Maduro to recognize his own defeat.
Venezuela’s opposition organized and registered more than 90,000 volunteers to serve as local witnesses to the vote count and to document the results of individual tally sheets at polling sites across the country. Despite interference at some election stations, those witnesses succeeded in gathering evidence of the vote counts at more than 80% of precincts across the country.
Although the National Electoral Council (CNE) claimed after polls closed on July 28 that Maduro had won the election with 51% of the vote, neither it nor the Supreme Tribunal Council have published the results from individual polling sites throughout the country as required by Venezuelan law. In contrast, the Democratic Unity Platform has published tally sheets demonstrating their candidate, Edmundo González, received 67% of observed votes versus only 30% for Maduro – a count that the AP and The Washington Post have independently reviewed and established as credible.
In an intimidation campaign designed to avoid international headlines, more than 1,600 Venezuelans (including more than 100 minors) have been arrested since election day, according to the human rights monitoring organization Foro Penal. Many of those targeted for arrest are the very volunteers who served as registered witnesses to the vote count on election day. The National Assembly also passed a new law on Aug. 15 regulating non-government organizations that requires them to declare whether they receive foreign funding, with only a vague explanation about what would happen if an organization does.
These moves are clearly intended to raise the costs of speaking out. Yet on Aug. 26, one of two opposition-aligned representatives to the CNE broke their silence to publicly admit he had seen no evidence or proof from the body that supports its claim that Maduro won the election, in an interview with the New York Times.
The United States and the EU have recognized González’s victory in the elections and called for Venezuela’s CNE to publish proof of the election results. However, the governments of Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are largely seen as the most influential potential interlocutors to negotiate a democratic transition with Maduro. While the Colombian and Brazilian governments released a joint statement insisting the Venezuelan government publish data to verify the election outcome, their presidents have also leaned on such untenable proposals as repeating the election or forming a power-sharing government between the ruling party and political opposition.
Where pressure from the international community may fall short, the best hope for the Maduro regime to recognize the election results still comes from within the country. The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) fielded its own army of witnesses on election day who know the truth of the vote counts. The United States could strengthen incentives for political elites and other regime beneficiaries to withdraw their support for Maduro by offering to lift targeted or sectoral sanctions if Maduro acknowledges his own defeat and a peaceful transfer of power to González takes place.
Military and security officials on hand at voting sites presumably saw many of the tally sheet results, too. Although he depends on it, the actual degree of support Maduro may or may not enjoy from within the ranks of the military remains unknown. Prior to the elections, members of the military comprised nearly half of political prisoners imprisoned by the Maduro regime, which has been known to target military officials for detention, terrorism charges, and torture in the past.
Venezuela’s opposition has issued its own appeals to those from within the government who are willing to acknowledge the truth. And despite the passage of time, many Venezuelans remain hopeful that the truth will eventually prevail, turning out in public demonstrations and organizing behind the scenes to continue calling for the government to publish the election results.
