Insights from Bush Institute immigration expert Laura Collins
Mexico inaugurated its 66th president, Claudia Sheinbaum, earlier this month. In addition to a myriad of challenges, she inherits recent migration and security cooperation with the U.S. that has been credited with large reductions in the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. This LA Times piece highlights an example of the current cooperation: Mexico asked the U.S. to open more CBP One appointments. Once the U.S. did so, Mexico announced it would bus migrants with appointments from southern Mexico to their interview location.
We cannot know for certain if President Sheinbaum will continue this level of cooperation with the next American president. She also has to contend with cartel violence and the Mexican economy, both factors that could impact outmigration of Mexican citizens. And we can’t forget that President Sheinbaum will also be in office during the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, an incredibly consequential and beneficial trade agreement for the entire region.
The next U.S. president’s collaboration with Mexico matters greatly to American prosperity and security. Cooperation is key to successful border policy. Without our regional partners, the refugee crisis in the Western Hemisphere will not be manageable in the foreseeable future. We must all hope for a successful and mutually beneficial relationship.
Figure Of The Month
560
U.S. Border Patrol reported 560 migrant deaths at the border in 2024, down from 704 in 2023 and a high of 900 in 2022. While lower than in the recent past, deaths remain significantly higher than in 2020 and earlier.
Data Dive
- The Biden Administration plans to extend its policy barring most asylum seekers from crossing if daily border encounters exceed 1,500, moving from a seven-day period to a 28-day period before restrictions can be lifted.
- The American Immigration Council is out with an updated assessment of the fiscal and economic cost of mass deportation to the United States. Over a decade, it would cost U.S. taxpayers $967.9 billion to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. The economy would lose 4.2% to 6.8% of GDP, and it would disrupt multiple industries.
- Natural disasters are often a catalyst for migration. According to a report by the International Refugee Assistance Project, 43% of migrant survey respondents experienced extreme weather events in their country of origin.
- A Canadian program designed to attract U.S. H-1B visa holders admitted far less than its allotment, according to the Niskanen Center’s analysis of Canadian immigration data. Only 1,205 H1-B workers ultimately moved to Canada, suggesting to Niskanen’s researchers that H1-B immigrants primarily view the plan as a back-up option and would prefer to stay in the U.S.
- The border is about more than migration: Port Laredo in Laredo, Texas, is the top port and top border crossing in the U.S. by value of trade. Last year, the port’s total trade with the world was $319.91 billion.
What I’m Reading
- At the George W. Bush Institute, we know immigration is an important part of a pro-growth economic policy agenda. That’s why I was excited to see this Atlantic piece lay out the economic data – which is often misunderstood – so clearly.
- A fascinating report in The Dallas Morning News shows the extent of gun smuggling from the U.S. to Mexico and the difficulties law enforcement has encountered in tracing confiscated weapons in Mexico. Gun ownership laws in Mexico are stricter than the U.S., and criminal organizations rely on guns smuggled from the U.S. to terrorize their fellow citizens.
- Colombia and Panama recently announced a plan to build a single jungle route for migrants, hoping to curtail human trafficking and violence in the Darien Gap. While well-intentioned, this plan seems unlikely to work and underscores the need for viable regional migration management strategies.
- Guatemalan authorities arrested 25 police officers for their involvement in a human smuggling ring that transported U.S.-bound migrants. The smuggling network, “Los Rs,” had been active for several years, amassing millions of Guatemalan quetzals and using corrupt police officers to facilitate the movement and exploitation of nearly 10,000 migrants. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security assisted in the investigation. This is a horrifying example of the scope of the problem in the hemisphere, where trusted institutions must be part of the solution rather than perpetuating human suffering.
- Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals is in court again this month. Dreamers still need a permanent legislative solution, not policy made by the judicial branch.
Upcoming Events
- November 12, National Immigration Forum: Leading the Way 2024
