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Mass deportation explained

Interview With
Learn more about Laura Collins.
Laura Collins
Director, Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative
George W. Bush Institute

What does it mean to be an “undocumented” immigrant?  

There are approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States as of 2022, according to the Pew Research Center. Undocumented immigrants are people who either entered the country illegally or who entered legally but overstayed their visas rather than returning home. While some are recent arrivals to the United States, many have lived here for more than a decade. Many undocumented people live in mixed status families – they are married to a U.S. citizen or have U.S. citizen children.  

How does this population affect the U.S. economy? What about the economy in my state/city? 

Undocumented immigrants do not have legal work authorization, and they do not qualify for federal entitlement benefits. They must work to support themselves, however, so the vast majority work – some with a false identity and some in jobs in which their immigration status isn’t likely to be checked closely. Undocumented immigrants often pay taxes, bolstering programs like Social Security which they are unable to access. The undocumented are an economic benefit on a federal level, given their inability to access benefits and tax payments.  

On the state and local level, their benefit and burden vary. The primary costs at a state and local level are in education, health care, and criminal justice. The cost burden on these vary greatly based on which benefits states offer to undocumented immigrants. According to the Baker Institute, undocumented immigrants in Texas contribute $420 million more in revenue than they cost the state.  

What is mass deportation, and who would be impacted?  

Mass deportation is an effort to remove millions of undocumented immigrants from the United States. Who would be impacted depends on how the executive branch prioritizes people for removal. The incoming administration has indicated that it will begin with immigrants convicted of crimes and immigrants with final orders of removal. Taken to the logical conclusion, mass deportation could impact any person who is undocumented, even if the only time they violated the law was to enter the United States, overstay their visa, or work without authorization.  

What is the likelihood and feasibility of deportations on this scale?  

Deporting 11 million people is nearly impossible to do given the current resource and capacity constraints of the federal government. It would be incredibly expensive, damaging to the economy, and disruptive to communities. A 2015 American Action Forum report estimated it would cost $400 billion to $600 billion, take 20 years, and result in over $1 trillion in lost GDP. 

Can the undocumented population become U.S. citizens?

While legislation has been proposed multiple times since 2006 to provide an earned pathway to citizenship for the undocumented, no current solution exists to allow these immigrants who are here and working to earn regular status and, possibly, eventual citizenship. For most undocumented, there are no legal avenues they can pursue to get a legal work permit or green card, even if they marry a U.S. citizen or get sponsored for a green card by an employer.