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Freedom Collection

Interviews with Manuel Vázquez Portal

Interviewed November 22, 2024

So then when he [Fidel Castro] separates himself from power, or illness separates Fidel from power, everyone thought Raul Castro would produce changes. I, being a skeptic as well as pragmatic, noted that Raul Castro would never betray what Raul Castro considers his brother’s legacy, which is his own legacy because he was always with his brother. Therefore, Raul Castro has established a scheme for survival; since he is going to survive until death or until the end of times, he makes people believe that he will actually bring about change.

And the fact that dissidents can now travel is more than a change, it is a right that was never returned to the people. It has been returned selectively with the new implementation of rules that permits the government to say, “Look you cannot leave for following a school of thought” or “You can go.” But these trips have had various consequences.

So then that’s when the analysts, the theorists begin to get confused. And that’s why Raul Castro says, “We are not in a hurry [to institute reforms]. This is our way,” because he has the power. And it’s a power that the Cuban exiles do not have the strength to bring down. The dissidents do not have enough strength to bring it down. Therefore there isn’t a real plan that the exiles have to break the power of the military junta governing Cuba. There is no homogenous, national, organized, coherent plan that can put half a million Cubans on the streets for the Cuban opposition.

So therefore, the only plan that is moving forward is Raul Castro’s plan, his rhythm, his music, and his steps. That is the political reality. If we speak politically correct then we begin to sound like the American left and the Europeans or like the American right in speeches that are very well founded in Cuban relations but are purely theoretical. In practice, in real politics, the concrete fact is that the Cuban opposition does not have the strength to take down the Cuban government.

The Cuban exiles do not have the strength or a plan to take down the Cuban government. And everything turns into a speech, or associations, congregations, theorizing, “Cuba-alogues” forecasting. The “Cassandra Syndrome” comes over us; we are all fortune tellers and we all say what’s going to happen but really what is concrete is that there is no solid national organization [in Cuba] that’s coherent. And obviously since there’s no independent economic power in Cuba; the bourgeoisie, the petit bourgeoisie, it cannot help the opposition because it doesn’t exist.

[The term “Cassandra Syndrome” derives from Greek Mythology. It refers to a situation in which valid warnings or concerns are dismissed or disbelieved.]

But aside from that, if inside of Cuba the “business man” is seen as a change, like a concession of the government to the people, then those who know about the repression and the government’s power become against solidarity with the dissidents.

[Since coming to power in 2008, Raul Castro instituted economic reforms permitting the establishment of some private businesses in Cuba as long as they are authorized by the government. These reforms were motivated by the government’s need to reduce its bloated payroll.]

“Don’t get close to me because I don’t want to lose my business.” It was the other way around when it happened to Fidel Castro [during the 1959 revolution] because it was the national bourgeoisie that gave him money, which supported Fidel Castro so that he could take power; who would buy the guns, who would run the errands. So then, the petit bourgeoisie and the national bourgeoisie are the ones who sweep Fidel Castro into power.

The U.S. government supported Fidel Castro, if not directly then indirectly by not supporting [Fulgencio] Batista. [Fulgencio Batista (1901 – 1973) served as the president of Cuba from 1940-1944. In 1952, he returned to power via a bloodless coup and ruled the island through a military dictatorship until being overthrown by Fidel Castro in 1959.] In the end, in order to realize the defeat of a government there are certain realities that are needed in Cuba that they don’t have; neither the opposition nor the Cuban exiles. So then what happens?

The whole world is waiting for Raul Castro to produce some changes. Yes, Raul Castro will produce some changes, the changes that are convenient for him through a militaristic, authoritarian view, for the heir of authoritarian communism from Fidel Castro and to continue the legacy of his brother.

So what happens is that there is a huge population, a population that is absolutely incapacitated to win, because we can talk about 10 Ladies in White that march to a church…but like the saying says, “One swallow does not make it summer.” [Meaning,] Until the Cuban people rise to the streets… I don’t know…like in Egypt…in the Arab Spring…there won’t be any changes.

[Raul Castro (1931 – ) is the younger brother of Fidel. He assumed leadership of the Communist Party and the country in 2008.]