Editor’s Note
If predictions are hard, especially about the future (a nugget of wisdom that’s been attributed to Yogi Berra, Mark Twain, and the Danish physicist Niels Bohr, among others), it may be because the future has such a disconcerting way of changing.
Consider this: 50 years ago, had a journal like ours devoted a special issue to demographics (as we are today), it would have painted a grim picture. Experts at the time were so certain that the world faced an imminent population explosion that one book published in 1968 predicted that humanity would soon run out of resources. An influential 1972 report warned of a coming collapse of the global economy. And an even grislier book predicted that the U.S. government would soon have to decide which countries to save from starvation.
Today the picture is starkly different. Demographers are once again warning about the future, but this time the dangers have reversed. Rather than too many people, we face a future with too few of them. Many countries are aging fast and will soon start shrinking. What will that mean for the United States, its allies and competitors, and for geopolitics writ large? Those are some of the questions we asked our authors to tackle.
The George W. Bush Institute’s own Jessica Ludwig starts with the big picture. Challenging the conventional view that autocracies are better at dealing with big changes, she explains why democracies are actually more likely to roll with the coming demographic shift – which may strengthen their advantage in the years ahead. Feng Wang, of the University of California at Irvine, and Alexandra Prokopenko, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, look at what the future holds for both China and Russia as those countries get older and smaller (the news isn’t good for either). Elisabeth Braw, of the Atlantic Council, warns that Europe’s future could also look worse – unless more countries there follow the Scandinavians’ lead, and make life easier for working parents. And the Bush Institute’s Hannah Johnson looks at PEPFAR’s amazing success fighting HIV in Africa and the challenges that progress has produced, including how to help African health systems deal with aging and with noncommunicable diseases.
Four pieces focus on the shifts coming for the United States and how we, as a country, must also adapt. Cullum Clark, a Director in the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative, looks at the economic, social, and infrastructure changes needed to support a rapidly aging population. John Scott, of the Pew Charitable Trusts, lays out what Americans must start doing now to afford the longer retirements they’re likely to enjoy. Laura Collins, also a Director in the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative, explains how a smart immigration policy has become more important than ever. And Justin Coppedge, of Texas 2036, shows how the Lone Star State is defying the trends by continuing to grow – but argues that even expansion can bring its own challenges. He then lays out what Texas must do if it hopes to meet them.
Finally, we have Nick Eberstadt – one of the world’s leading demographers – anchoring the issue. In “Our Incredible Shrinking Planet,” he makes a strong case for optimism about the future, reminding us (as I did at the start) that demographic predictions don’t always turn out as expected – and that even when they do, we humans have an unparalleled ability to adapt.
It’s a fascinating issue on a fascinating subject, and we hope you’ll learn as much from it as we did. As always, I look forward to your comments and feedback.
